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“This time of year, the more you hear, the less you know.” – Don Banks, Sports Illustrated

I think that perfectly sums up the days leading up to the 2008 NFL Draft. There is more uncertainty now than ever, as different voices are giving different opinions. For the last week or so, I’ve been going back and forth about whether or not I wanted to do a mock draft. I want to do one because it’s fun and it will give our readers something to chew on and debate. I didn’t want to do one because I’m so unsure about so many things in this year’s draft, that I would likely end up looking foolish when my entire mock went up in smoke. But I’m not worried about that right now, and I’m going to do it anyway. Before I begin, let me give a few disclaimers. I’m aiming for getting at least 25% of my first round picks correct. For those of you math majors counting at home, that’s 8 correct picks out of the 31 selections. It may seem like I’m setting the bar low, but the way this year’s draft is looking, 25% might actually be pretty good. The second issue is that I’m not going to predict trades within the first round, unless they’ve already taken place (like Jared Allen to Minnesota). I realize that this is a major flaw in my mock, but trades are so unpredictable. It would take me days to try to prognosticate what trades will take place. All that being said, here is the first ever Bill Slattery Mock Draft:

1. Miami Dolphins – Jake Long, OT (Michigan). They’ve already agreed to a contract, and the only thing needed to make this official is Long’s name being announced by Commissioner Roger Goodell. For the record, I’m counting this as one of my correct picks. One down, seven to go to hit 25%.
2. St. Louis Rams – Chris Long, DE (Virginia). With Jake off the board, it’s between Chris and Glenn Dorsey. I give the edge to Howie Long’s kid, as I think the Rams are looking for a pass rusher more than an interior force.
3. Atlanta Falcons – Glenn Dorsey, DT (LSU). I keep hearing conflicting reports about what the Falcons are looking for. Some people swear it’s Matt Ryan, others say it’s Dorsey. They desperately need impact players at both positions, and my gut tells me they’ll go with Dorsey.
4. Oakland Raiders – Darren McFadden, RB (Arkansas). Tough call here, as Oakland could go in a number of directions. I think Raiders owner Al Davis will fall in love with McFadden, the one true DY-NO-MITE playmaker in this year’s draft.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Ryan Clady, OT (Boise St.). The Chiefs could look to upgrade their pass rush here, after trading Jared Allen to the Vikings. However, with this pick I think they’ll look to re-build their Swiss cheese offensive line which gave up a league high 54 sacks last year.
6. New York Jets – Vernon Gholston, DE/LB (Ohio St.). If McFadden is on the board here, the Jet fans in attendance will be in heaven. But Gholston’s not a bad option, as he projects to be a very good edge rusher in head coach Eric Mangini’s 3-4 defensive scheme, and he will help the Jets improve upon their paltry 29 sacks last year.
7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco) – Keith Rivers, LB (USC). The Pats could look to deal this pick to the highest bidder in the ongoing Matt Ryan sweepstakes. But remember, I’m assuming no trades take place here. They could also look for a cornerback to replace the departed Asante Samuel and Randall Gay. But Bill Belichick loves his linebackers and Rivers adds some much-needed youth to an aging linebackers corps.
8. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Ryan, QB (Boston College). If Ryan is still available here, the Ravens will snatch him up so fast that Roger Goodell won’t even have to leave the podium after announcing the 7th pick. Things could break differently, and there’s a good chance Ryan won’t be available here. But the way I have things going, Matt Ryan will have a home in the Inner Harbor.
9. Cincinnati Bengals – Sedrick Ellis, DT (USC). No brainer here, as long as he’s still on the board. Ellis is a good value pick in this spot and he fills a need for the Bengals.
10. New Orleans Saints – Leodis McKelvin, CB (Troy). Bit of a consolation pick for the Saints, as they’d rather have just about any of those other guys in the top 9. They could go with a different cornerback such as Mike Jenkins, it depends who is highest on their board.
11. Buffalo Bills – Devin Thomas, WR (Michigan St.). The Bills need a wide receiver, and the consensus seems to be that Thomas is the class of this year’s crop.
12. Denver Broncos – Branden Albert, T/G (Virginia). They really need offensive line help with the retirement of long-time starter Matt Lepsis. Albert’s stock seems to be gaining momentum leading up to the draft, and he’s the pick for the Broncos.
13. Carolina Panthers – Derrick Harvey, DE (Florida). Between the retirement of Mike Rucker and the puzzling unproductive season from Julius Peppers, the Panthers need to upgrade their pass rush. Harvey is just the guy to do that.
14. Chicago Bears – Chris Williams, OT (Vanderbilt). The Bears offense could be historically bad this season. The only position where they aren’t below average is at tight end. They have needs all over the offensive side of the ball, but Chicago’s conservative nature tells me they’ll take a lineman instead of a running back or receiver.
15. Detroit Lions – Rashard Mendenhall, RB (Illinois). The Lions have a lot of needs, including a playmaking running back. Mendenhall is just that, making him a logical pick for the Lions.
16. Arizona Cardinals – Mike Jenkins, CB (South Florida). They’re very likely to take the best cornerback available when they’re up. Some say McKelvin, I say Jenkins.
17. Kansas City Chiefs (from Minnesota) – Jeff Otah, OT (Pittsburgh). Will the Chiefs really use two first round picks on offensive linemen? Maybe, maybe not. The Jets did it in 2006, maybe the Chiefs will do it this year. But at this point, Otah has the highest value while filling a need for the Chiefs. They have many holes to fill on an offensive line that allowed 54 sacks last year and limited star running back Larry Johnson’s production. They have 13 picks in this year’s draft, so they have plenty of opportunities to address their other needs in later rounds.
    
18. Houston Texans – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB (Tennessee St.). I know the Texans added cornerback Jacques Reeves this off-season, but that hardly fills their need for a cornerback because he’s the worst player in football. One thing I love about Rodgers-Cromartie is that his cousin is All-Pro Chargers (should be Cowboys) cornerback Antonio Cromartie, who led the NFL in interceptions last year.
19. Philadelphia Eagles – Limas Sweed, WR (Texas). Recent history suggests that the Eagles use this pick to fortify their lines, but I think they’ll finally satisfy quarterback Donovan McNabb’s request for a big wide receiver.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – James Hardy, WR (Indiana). Jon Gruden continually looks to bolster his offense, which never seems to produce the way an offense run by a “genius” should produce. Hardy brings youth and talent to an aging receivers corps.
21. Washington Redskins – Phillip Merling, DE (Clemson). All four of my main draft sources (Kiper, McShay, Banks, King) have the Skins taking Merling in their latest mock drafts. Washington needs to improve their pass rush, and Merling is the best defensive lineman available here.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland) – Felix Jones, RB (Arkansas). Jones is the explosive playmaker the Boys need out of the backfield. His Arkansas ties help too, as owner Jerry Jones is an Arkansas alum.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers – Gosder Chreilus, OL (Boston College). After losing offensive linemen Alan Faneca to free agency and Jeff Hartings to retirement, the Steelers need to bolster their offensive line.
24. Tennessee Titans – Aqib Talib, CB (Kansas). Poor Vince Young. The quarterback desperately needs playmakers around him, but the Titans just won’t give it to him. I think they should go with a receiver here, but I don’t think they will. Talib fills a need on the defensive side of the ball, and VY is left with garbage surrounding him.
25. Seattle Seahawks – Dustin Keller, TE (Purdue). A lot of people think they could take defensive tackle Kentwan Balmer here, but I think they’ll go with Keller. Coach Mike Holmgren will want to go out with a bang in his last season, and Keller fills a pressing need and will help their offfense.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars – Lawrence Jackson, DE (USC). Jacksonville is a fairly complete team, but the one thing they’re missing is a good defensive end who can consistently get to the quarterback. Some people think Miami DE Calais Campbell has more upside, but Jackson is the safer pick.
27. San Diego Chargers – Jonathan Stewart, RB (Oregon). Sliding a bit due to concerns about turf toe, there is no denying Stewart’s talent. The Chargers have few pressing needs and will use this pick to replace the departed Michael Turner as LT’s back-up.
28. Dallas Cowboys – DeSean Jackson, WR (Cal). A dynamic playmaker who brings youth and speed to the Dallas offense. They could look for a cornerback here, but the trade for Pacman Jones pushes that down on their list of priorities.
29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis) – Jerod Mayo, LB (Tennessee). The Niners have so many needs that they are in position to draft the best available player, because the odds are that whoever it is will fill a need for them. Mayo is the best available player here and the Niners could use another linebacker.
30. Green Bay Packers – Brandon Flowers, CB (Virginia Tech). The best remaining cornerback brings youth and depth to a position currently manned by veterans Al Harris and Charles Woodson.
    
31. New England Patriots – Forfeited due to SpyGate.
32. New York Giants – Kenny Phillips, S (Miami). They could go in a number of directions here, but the most likely scenario is that they take either a linebacker or safety. I hear the Giants like the guy from the U, so he’s the pick here.