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Don Banks of Sports Illustrated released his fifth attempt at a mock draft yesterday. There are some pretty big changes from his previous mock drafts, as there is no general consensus on how things will shake out on April 26. A lot of times in drafts, you can say, “If Player A is still on the board when Team Z selects, they will absolutely snatch him up.” That’s not the case this year, as there are no guarantees in the top 10. This is partly due to the multiple needs of the teams selecting at the top of the draft, along with the fact that there are few 100% standout prospects. The only guy who is viewed as a DY-NO-MITE prospect is Arkansas running back Darren McFadden. The problem is that none of the teams in the top 10 have a pressing need for a running back. But McFadden is so good that it will be tough for teams to pass on him (Jets maybe?), even though they have bigger needs than running back. Like I’ve done in the previous breakdowns of the mock drafts, I’ll analyze each pick until McFadden is selected or the Jets pick, whichever comes last. Then I’ll look at that other New York team picking at the bottom of the first round.

• Banks still has the Miami Dolphins selecting Virginia defensive end Chris Long first overall. This is a perfectly logical selection for the Fish, as Long represents a need. Long is a good fit for Miami, which is almost certain to employ a 3-4 defensive scheme since hiring Bill Parcells to take over the franchise. Chris Long excelled in a 3-4 defensive scheme at Virginia, under head coach Al Groh, a former Parcells assistant. Groh has apparently told Parcells, “He’s your kind of player.” Anyone who is familiar with Parcells knows that he likes to go with “his guys.” But reports are surfacing now that Parcells has been on contact with the representatives of Michigan offensive tackle Jake Long. At this point, there are a lot of people out there who believe that Parcells will negotiate with a number of the top prospects, and select the guy who is most likely to accept a team-friendly deal. Banks himself acknowledged the possibility of this happening. “Football czar Bill Parcells has four players he’s considering at No. 1 — Chris Long, Jake Long, Vernon Gholston and Glenn Dorsey — and whichever one of them seems willing to negotiate the fairest deal prior to draft day winds up getting the nod.” I have no idea what will go down at this point, but if I had to pick one guy to go first overall, my guess would be Chris Long.
• With the second pick, Banks has the St. Louis Rams taking Jake Long. I agree 100% in this case. Many analysts are convinced that the Rams will use this pick on the defensive side of the ball. This may happen if Jake Long is taken by the Dolphins, but if Jake is still on the board when the Rams are up, they have to select him. I realize they have needs on the defensive side of the ball, but their offensive line was Swiss Cheese last year. With all of the money they invested in quarterback Marc Bulger and running back Steven Jackson, the Rams need to repair their offensive line. The Rams offense will not get back on track if the o-line has a repeat performance of last year. The Rams have not done anything in free agency to upgrade the offensive line, which is why they have to go with Jake Long at #2. If Jake is taken by the Dolphins, they may take a defensive player. But they can’t afford to pass on this guy, not with their shoddy offensive line.
• Here’s where things start to change. Banks has previously had the Atlanta Falcons taking Boston College quarterback Matt Ryan third overall, but he has them taking LSU defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey this time. This pick is a toss-up because the Falcons have so many needs. Dorsey has quelled injury concerns and has seen his stock rise again. He is the ideal run-stopper that the Falcons need. But the Falcons are also a mess at the quarterback position, and they need to address that at some point this off-season. If they don’t take Ryan at #3, there’s a chance they could try to trade for another first-round pick to snatch him. Or they could set their sights on another one of the quarterbacks, such as Joe Flacco, Brian Brohm or Chad Henne. If I had to guess, I’d say they take Matt Ryan here. But Dorsey is a very real possibility, and what the Falcons do here will certainly impact how the rest of the draft unfolds.
• With the fourth overall pick, Banks says the Oakland Raiders will select Ohio St. defensive end Vernon Gholston. Gholston would be a good pick here, as he projects to be an impact pass rusher. And as we learned during the Giants Super Bowl run, you can never have too many good pass rushers. But I’m breaking with Banks on this one, I think they’ll take Darren McFadden. Al Davis loves speed guys more than I love the Dallas Cowboys. McFadden is the kind of player with the ability to transform an offense. McFadden will take pressure of franchise quarterback JaMarcus Russell, who will certainly experience growing pains in his first year as a starter. (And by growing pains, I mean pain from his struggles on the field as well as pain from his expanding waistline, as he has been rumored to weigh 300 pounds this off-season.) Oakland does have a stockpile of decent running backs, but none of them have McFadden’s talent. He’s a good fit for the Raiders, and the best choice for them. Gholston wouldn’t be a bad selection here either, but I give the edge to McFadden.
• According to Banks, the Chiefs will select Matt Ryan fifth overall. I believe Ryan will be gone at this point, but even if he was still on the board I think the Chiefs will go in another direction. Their offensive line was an unmitigated disaster last season, allowing a league high 54 sacks. The team never recovered from the retirements of Pro Bowl linemen Willie Roaf and Will Shields last off-season. Even if the Chiefs took Ryan here, he would be nothing more than a glorified tackling dummy, which would certainly hinder his development. The Chiefs have to draft an offensive lineman here. If Jake Long is somehow still available here, the Chiefs won’t even hesitate to snatch him up. If Jake’s not here, they should go with another offensive lineman, such as Ryan Clady of Boise St. Mel Kiper has them taking Virginia offensive lineman Branden Albert here, which could happen. Either way, the Chiefs should use the fifth pick to shore up their o-line. I think Clady is the pick here.
• Here come the New York Jets with the 6th overall pick. I believe it will come down to either Darren McFadden or Vernon Gholston for the Jets. If somehow both players are still on the board, I think McFadden has the edge. But if only one of them is available here, the Jets will go with that guy. In Banks’ version of the draft, that guy is McFadden. And I agree, if he’s on the board at #6, the Jets will take him. Running back isn’t the Jets biggest need, but McFadden would still be a great pick. He’s the one truly dynamic player in this draft, who will give whatever team selects him the “WOW Factor” on offense. Anyone who has watched the Jets for the last, oh 25 years, knows that the Jets haven’t had a guy like that. Thomas Jones is a good running back, but McFadden brings so much more to the table and would instantly breathe life into what is a very dull offense. The biggest question is whether McFadden will be available or not. I think he goes to Oakland at #4, which would put Vernon Gholston in the Jets hands. Gholston is a good fit for the Jets, who still need to upgrade their pass rush. I think it comes down to whichever player is available. If both are gone, it will be a difficult decision for the Jets. In such a situation, Matt Ryan could be a possibility. But I think that either Gholston or McFadden will still be on the board, and the J-E-T-S will go with one of the two.
• We now skip down to the 31st overall pick, held by the New York Giants. It’s nearly impossible to tell how the first 30 picks of the draft will shake out, so it’s easiest to project what positions the Giants will be looking at. They have needs in the linebackers unit and in the secondary, after losing linebacker Kawika Mitchell and safety Gibril Wilson in free agency. Banks has the Giants selecting Tennessee linebacker Jerrod Mayo, a solid selection for Big Blue. They could use a linebacker, and Mayo is a good player and a good fit. Mayo may go before the Giants are up, but either way, look for the Giants to use the 31st pick on a linebacker or defensive back.

The Draft is only 16 days away. As the day approaches, how it will unfold is more uncertain than ever. The only thing that I will guarantee is that there are no guarantees. I’m eagerly awaiting the day, it promises to be very, very interesting.

Happy Birthday to Commodore Matthew Perry, Joseph Pulitzer, John Madden, Don Meredith, Ken Griffey Sr., Steven Seagal, Brian Setzer, Steve Bisciotti, Steve Tasker, Neil Smith, Orlando Jones, Q-Tip, Al Reyes, Andre Ethier, Mandy Moore and Haley Joel Osment