On The Eve of Free Agency

The free agency period for the NFL begins tonight at 10:00 P.M. I for one am very excited, because as free agency shakes out, we will get a clearer picture of what teams will be looking for in April 26’s draft. But free agency itself is also very intriguing, as teams look to fill their off-season needs. Many fans drool over the possibility of signing big-ticket free agents, the missing pieces who will lead their teams to Super Bowl glory. But I’m here to dispel that rumor. That’s not how it works.

Take a look at the last 5 Super Bowl champions. The 2003 Patriots, the 2004 Patriots, the 2005 Steelers, the 2006 Colts and the 2007 Giants. None of those teams relied heavily on free agency, instead opting to build through the draft and low-key acquisitions. (You DO NOT need to remind me about the Patriots’ huge acquisitions this past off-season, I’m well aware. But that was very unusual for them, before that they were a model franchise when it came to building from within.) Take a look at the Colts. Last year, 21 of their 22 starters on offense and defense were drafted by the team. In case that astounding statistic fails to resonate with you, let me repeat it. Twenty-one of their twenty-two starters were drafted by the team. The lone exception is Raheem Brock, who was drafted by the Philadelphia Eagles in the 7th round in 2002. He hardly qualifies as a big-time free agent. The Colts have been one of the elite NFL teams over the past few years, and they’ve done it by drafting good players.

The NFL is the ultimate copycat league, a glorified version of Follow the Leader. When one team implements a successful plan, the rest of the league tries to follow that blueprint of success. Jerry Reese certainly emulated the Colts last off-season, laying low in the free agent market while drafting impact players. The Giants’ biggest free agent signing last year was linebacker Kawika Mitchell, a good player for sure but hardly a franchise player. If I remember correctly, Reese took a lot of heat from Giant fans last year for failing to go out and improve a team was spectacularly mediocre in 2006. But after winning the Super Bowl this year, I don’t think any Giant fans are complaining about Reese right about now. He did an incredible job in last year’s draft, picking up players who had a major impact on the team’s post-season success.

So why is it that teams who build through the draft have the most success? Here’s my theory, and it’s relatively simple: Teams don’t let their best players become free agents. They lock them up with long-term contracts before free agency is even an option. Take a look at the first-team All-Pro squad from the 2007 season. Out of the 12 offensive All-Pros (I’m excluding special teams here), 8 out of the 12 were drafted by the teams they played for in 2007. The 4 players who were not drafted by their clubs: fullback Lorenzo Neal, wide receivers Randy Moss and Terrell Owens and guard Steve Hutchinson. But let me break this down. Neal is definitely a good player, but fullback is without a doubt the least important offensive position, the lowest offensive priority of most NFL clubs. Moss and Owens are extremely talented players, but they are both such incredible malcontents that they were each dumped by two teams before they landed in New England and Dallas, respectively. Hutchinson went from Seattle to Minnesota in a very controversial free agent signing, but he is regarded as one of the best free agent pick-ups of the last few years. The same deal applies for defense. Out of the 12 players on the first-team, 10 were drafted by their current teams. Only end Patrick Kerney and linebacker Mike Vrabel were drafted by other teams.

Are you seeing my point? The best players usually stay with the teams that draft them. Now I’m not suggesting that teams neglect free agents all-together. That would be extremely misguided and taking my argument to the ultimate extreme. Very good players can be found via free agency, players that help teams win. After all, the Giants signed Plaxico Burress away from the Steelers in 2005. I’d say that worked out well for the Giants. The Patriots were very active last off-season, and they were just a Jarvis Green missed sack from going 19-0. But teams need to be cautious. They should realize that the best teams are built from within and that free agents function most effectively as good complementary pieces. Do I expect teams to follow the Giants blueprint? Yeah, I think some teams will. But as long as Dan Snyder owns an NFL team, there will always be big splashes in free agency.

5 Responses

  1. [...] splash in free agency, and given their recent track record, there is no reason to. If you read my latest post, you know that drafting key players is the best way to achieve success in this league. I expect [...]

  2. [...] because they came before the Combine and free agency period. Well the Combine is over now, and free agency is about to start, so we’re starting to get a clearer picture of how things could unfold on April 26. Here are [...]

  3. [...] have to say, I am not a fan of this trade from the Jets perspective. I don’t like the Jets giving up their draft picks, even if they’re second day picks. (Yes, third rounders are now second-day picks. Starting in [...]

  4. [...] of the franchise. The Draft is the best source of finding quality players, the future All-Pros. Out of the 24 offensive and defensive players on this year’s first team All-Pro squad, 18 of t…. If the Jets can pick up quality contributors, the Mangini Era could be salvaged. If not, Gang [...]

  5. [...] one bit, especially after watching the Steelers win the Super Bowl with players they drafted.  Here is what I had to say last year: The free agency period for the NFL begins tonight at 10:00 P.M. I for one am very excited, [...]

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